Will Asia soon have its first Pope?

Luis Antonio Tagle from Philippines is in contention to succeed Francis as pontiff

The Catholic church may soon have its first Asian pope as cardinals prepare to elect the next leader of 1.4 billion faithful.

The Christian world is mourning Pope Francis, the Argentine who died on Monday aged 88 after suffering from a serious bout of pneumonia in recent weeks.

His death could pave the way for Luis Antonio Tagle to become the first pope from Asia, home to the world’s fastest-growing Catholic population.

The former archbishop of Manila was once considered Francis’ preferred successor but reportedly fell out of favour over alleged “shortcomings” during his leadership of the Vatican charity Caritas International.

Tagle, 67, was created cardinal by Francis’s predecessor Benedict XVI in 2012, making him one of the youngest cardinals at the time.

Given the nature of cardinal appointments made by Francis, there is some expectation that his successor will be another non-European and hold progressive, liberal values similar to his.

Luis Antonio Tagle at a mass in the church of Saint Ambrogio (EPA)

However, the election process that will take place once Francis is buried is highly secretive and nothing will be certain until white smoke pours from the chimney of the Sistine Chapel, telling the world that a new pope has been picked.

Electing a pope from the Philippines could give the Catholic church access to China, where they have been eager to expand, analysts say.

On paper, Tagle, who generally prefers to be called by his nickname "Chito", seems to tick all the boxes to be the next pontiff.

He comes from what is called "Asia's Catholic lung" – the Philippines has the region's largest Catholic population. His mother was an ethnic Chinese Filipino. He speaks fluent Italian and English.

He has had decades of pastoral experience since his ordination to priesthood in 1982. He also has administrative experience, first as bishop of Imus and then as archbishop of Manila.

Tagle is known for his progressive views on homosexuality. He has spoken against abortion in the past, however.

Austrian cathedral pays tribute to Francis (Reuters)

In 2019, Tagle was called by Francis to stay in Rome as prefect of the Congregation for the Evangelisation of Peoples, which is responsible for missionary work.

In 2022, however, Francis fired the entire leadership of Caritas International following accusations of bullying and humiliation of employees and appointed a commissioner to run it.

Tagle, who was also removed from his role, had been nominally president but was not involved in daily operations, which were overseen by a lay director general.

Announcing the pope's dramatic decision, Tagle told a meeting of the confederation that the changes were a moment for "facing our failures". It remains to be seen how the saga will impact Tagle's chances at the papacy.

Cardinals are the pope’s closest collaborators, running key departments at the Vatican and dioceses around the world. When a pontiff dies or resigns, cardinals aged under 80 enter a secret conclave to choose the new head of the Catholic church from among themselves.

There are a total of 252 cardinals, 135 of them cardinal electors under 80. As many as 108 of the electors were appointed by Francis, 22 by his predecessor Benedict and five by John Paul II.

The complex vote will reveal if the cardinals believe Francis’ embrace of liberal social values and his progressive reform agenda have gone too far and whether a period of retrenchment is needed.

While Europe still has the largest share of cardinal electors, with about 39 per cent, it is down from 52 per cent in 2013 when Francis became the first Latin American pope.

The second largest group of electors is from Asia and Oceania, about 20 per cent, who could be paramount in choosing Tagle as the next pope.