Have you lost the plot?; A three-part series that explains the issues behind the news

... and what became of the Scott inquiry?

After three years, the finishing line is in sight for Sir Richard Scott's arms-to-Iraq inquiry. The report, weighing in at 2,000 pages and running to four volumes, is due to be published next month. Likeliest dates are 7 or 14 February, although there is some suggestion that it may be delayed until the end of the month because, having produced such a mammoth work, Sir Richard has realised, late in the day, that there is a case for including an executive summary.

While he pens his final words, speculation increases. Most attention will focus on the fate of five serving Cabinet ministers: Kenneth Clarke, Sir Nicholas Lyell, Malcolm Rifkind, Peter Lilley and William Waldegrave. Favourites to feel Sir Richard's wrath are Lyell and Waldegrave: Lyell for advising his ministerial colleagues to sign public interest immunity certificates denying the Matrix Churchill defendants a fair trial, Waldegrave for failing to inform Parliament of a relaxation in the export guidelines.

Anything more than Lyell and Waldegrave will count as a political disaster for the Government, especially as Clarke, for one, has indicated that he will resign if criticised by Scott. More likely is that Lyell will resign as Attorney-General and the Prime Minister will tough it out over Waldegrave.

Mr Major has already said that he is not bound to accept Scott's recommendations, a sign, perhaps, that he may be preparing to brazen it out.

While not as immediately politically significant, given the Government's current plight, but none the less damaging, will be Sir Richard's remarks on lack of communication between departments, lack of transparency and the conduct of foreign policy towards the Middle East. In the end, those comments, which will be accompanied by criticism of numerous officials and ex-ministers, and the spate of stories that will surely follow, could weaken still further an already badly weakened administration. Suffice to say, Labour, in the shape of Robin Cook, who will lead the party's response, cannot wait.