Sunak risks losing seat in general election as shock poll suggests Tories will be left with just 98 MPs

The poll suggests prime minister’s seat is at risk in a devastating general election for the Conservative Party

A senior Tory has warned Rishi Sunak he must improve the economy after a shock poll suggested the Conservative Party is facing electoral wipeout at the election, reduced to fewer than 100 MPs.

The Survation poll of 15,000 people warns even the prime minister’s seat is at risk what would be a devastating result for his party.

Defence secretary Grant Shapps, Commons leader Penny Mordaunt and home secretary James Cleverly would all lose their seats, according to the study, which modelled what would happen at constituency level. But the business secretary Kemi Badenoch, former home secretary Suella Braverman and ex-immigration minister Robert Jenrick, all seen as future leadership contenders, are likely to keep their seats.

In Mr Sunak’s new Richmond and Northallerton seat, which based on the 2019 results should be solidly Conservative, he has just a 2.4 per cent lead over Labour, while chancellor Jeremy Hunt has just a one per cent margin over the Liberal Democrats in his new Godalming and Ash seat.

The poll is the latest to predict a huge loss for the Tories after a survey earlier this month put support for the party at its lowest level in nearly 50 years.

In response, former party leader Iain Duncan Smith warned the Tories have only “a few months to make sure people are better off”.

He told Times Radio that concern and anger about cost of living, high levels of taxation, the economy and migration were “all good reasons why the public is angry, annoyed and fed up. This is all about a real anger with the government. I can fully understand that.”

He added: “There are things the government has got to get straight. Bring inflation down, interest rates down, taxation down. Get [Rwanda] flights off the ground. Getting pressure off people's backs financially is absolutely critical. We have a few months to make sure people are better off.”

The new study of individual seats also suggested the Tories would be wiped out in Scotland and Wales and hold just 98 seats in England.

It also predicted a landslide victory for Labour, with Sir Keir Starmer’s party winning 468 seats, while the Scottish National Party would pick up 41 seats, the Liberal Democrats 22 and Plaid Cymru two.

If correct, it would see a massive swing away from the Tories based on the 2019 general election, when it won 365 seats.

The poll will also stroke Conservative anxiety about Nige; Farage’s Reform UK. It suggests the party will come second in seven seats and take 8.5 per cent of the vote overall, just behind the Liberal Democrats on 10.4 per cent.

Naomi Smith, the chief executive of Best for Britain, which commissioned the poll, said: “With the polling showing swathes of voters turning their backs on the Tories, it’s clear that this will be a change election.”

The poll of 15,029 adults and analysis by Survation was conducted between March 8-22.

In a sign of Reform UK’s ambitions, Tory MP Bob Seely revealed he had been approached to defect to the Nigel Farage-linked party.

Writing in The Sun on Sunday, he said: “I said no to Reform because I believe in loyalty. I believed in loyalty when I served in the British Army and I believe in it when I serve my constituents on the Isle of Wight, and I believe in it when I am supporting Rishi Sunak.

“I don’t cut and run, and neither should we.”

A Reform UK spokesperson told The Sun: “If he wants to turn down the only chance he has of saving his skin, well, that’s up to him.”