Pollster predicts grim local elections for Starmer and Badenoch with Reform surge

The local elections, which will be the first big electoral test since last summer’s general election, will see the Tories lose around 500 seats, a leading pollster has predicted

Conservative peer and leading pollster Lord Hayward has predicted his own party could lose around half its seats at the upcoming local elections, warning it will also be a grim night for Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour.

Voters in 23 local authorities across England will go to the polls on 1 May to choose their new councillors, with mayors also up for election across six regions. It will be the first big electoral test for the parties since last summer’s general election, and more than half of the council seats up for grabs are currently held by the Conservatives.

Lord Hayward said he expects the Tories to lose between 475 and 525 local authority seats, predicting that the party, which is defending around 900 seats, will only win between 375 and 425.

Kemi Badenoch admitted the local elections are “going to be very difficult” for her party (House of Commons)

Speaking to ITV, he also painted a grim picture for Labour. While he does not expect the party to see a notable change in overall seat numbers, the pollster warned they will fail to take seats in the Midlands and North that he argues “they should have won”.

These areas will instead see heavy gains for Reform UK, the pollster predicted. In total, he expects Nigel Farage’s party to make significant gains, winning between 400 and 450 seats.

Lord Hayward said it will be a “bad night for both the Conservatives, in terms of heavy losses but from a very high water mark, and Labour, who really should make gains from such a low level but lose even where they retained seats in 2021” - pointing to Doncaster, Durham and Lancashire as examples.

The pollster also warned Labour is at risk of losing control in Doncaster to Reform if they have a particularly difficult night at the polls.

He said: “In Doncaster, [Labour] currently hold 41 of 55 seats. On an awful night they will lose control. If they do so, it will be to Reform.

“Equally, Labour may lose virtually all their seats on either Oxfordshire or Cambridgeshire councils in that overwhelmingly, their county representation comes from the two academic centres. Unlike Doncaster, Durham or Lancs, Labour’s losses will be to the Lib Dems and Greens and will be on the basis of aid and welfare issues.”

Sir Keir has faced mounting criticism for Labour’s decision to slash the aid budget to 0.3 per cent of GDP, alongside his decision to make sweeping cuts to welfare amounting to £4.8bn.

The dire outlook for the Conservatives comes just one day after Kemi Badenoch admitted that May’s local elections are “going to be very difficult” for her party, after what she admitted was a “history defeat” for the Tories in July.

Speaking to BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, the Conservative leader said: “Two-thirds of the seats four years ago we won – there’s no way we are going to be able to do that again.”

Meanwhile, on Wednesday, the Tories were told to “come clean” on whether they want to do a deal with Reform UK, after shadow justice secretary Robert Jenrick vowed to bring together a coalition to fight Labour.

In an audio recording obtained by Sky News, the shadow justice secretary said that he wants the fight against Labour to be united, saying that if Nigel Farage’s party become a “permanent or semi-permanent fixture on the British political scene” then “life becomes a lot harder” for the Tories.

Ms Badenoch has consistently ruled out a national deal with Reform, but earlier this month, she suggested that Conservative councillors could be free to go into coalition after the upcoming local elections - an idea that was later rebuffed by Mr Farage.