What is Labour going to do about the small boat crossings?

As the temperature ticks up, so does the number of migrants attempting to cross the Channel. Sean O’Grady looks at what has been happening to address the problem

The total number of people who have crossed the Channel via small boat this year stands at 8,888 (PA)

A warm bank holiday weekend with placid seas around the British Isles should be jolly good news all round, but for government ministers there is the downside that the number of irregular migrants making the crossing from France will break new records. That would be news at any time – but with not much else going on politically, the effects will be amplified. The local elections in parts of England are only about a fortnight away, and only one party does well out of the migration issue...

How’s it going in the Channel?

Busy. Tuesday saw a record number of refugees, asylum seekers and other irregular migrants make the journey in a single day – 705 in 12 boats, encouraged by the favourable weather. That brings the total number of people to have crossed the Channel via small boat to 8,888 thus far in 2025, up 42 per cent on the comparable figure for last year.

Is it a record?

For the sea crossings, it’s the highest since 2018. Figures may be up significantly on 2024, but don’t forget that the crossings by small vessel basically replaced the previous favoured mode, which was hiding in vans and lorries. Much more effective security at the French Channel ports – and for a time, the effects of the pandemic – diverted migrants to use alternative modes of transport.

What’s the government doing about it?

“Smashing the gangs” is the slogan, and the basis for policy, but thus far it’s had relatively limited success – it is bound to take time for organisations across Europe to track them down, disrupt their activities, and remove the financial incentives for this lucrative trade. Keir Starmer has also talked about cooperating more with the EU, fast-tracking the asylum claim processing system, and running down the use of hotels, as well as enforcing the law by raiding businesses that use migrant labour – including those that operate as a front, such as some barbers, mini marts and nail bars.

The Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill will give the authorities sweeping new anti-terror powers to break the people-smuggling gangs, it’s claimed – but it is not yet law. The prime minister is also reported to be looking at ways to stop the human right to a family life from being abused by serious criminals facing deportation.

Meanwhile, the government has floated the idea of a one-in, one-out returns agreement with France. This would mean the French would accept the return of people with no valid claim for asylum in return for the same number of people with a legal case, such as for family reunion. There is also strong speculation that the government is looking to use foreign bases in the western Balkans to process cases.

What’s wrong with all that?

It’s not enough for some who are impatient about the small-boat traffic, even though those who arrive by such means represent only a small proportion, say 5 or 10 per cent, of the hundreds of thousands who come to the UK – most of whom do so in an orderly, lawful fashion on visas to work or study.

Immigration is blamed by some variously for the pressure on public services, crime, and housing costs; others point to the way public services rely on people from abroad at all levels, underfunding of services, and the fact that there is little correlation between migrant flow and property prices. Indeed, the overriding fact about migration is that it boosts economic growth.

Has the government had any successes?

Yes, though these have been somewhat under-covered in the media. The prime minister says: “We’ve returned more than 24,000 people who have no right to be here.” However, only 6,339 of these were enforced returns. Yvette Cooper, the home secretary, told MPs in December that she had issued closure orders for the seven hotels as the backlog of asylum cases was now coming down, with the total in use down to 220 from a peak under the previous administration of more than 400.

What do the opposition say?

They’re against irregular migration, but the Conservatives’ credibility is still shot because of their failure to “stop the boats” during their own time in office. They plead that they were on the brink of success when the election was called and the new Labour government scrapped the Rwanda plan – a powerful deterrent of a kind that is now lacking, according to the Tories. Kemi Badenoch also says she’d consider opting out of the European Convention on Human Rights.

The obvious winners in the light of concerns about migration are Nigel Farage and Reform UK. Farage says the first thing he would do as prime minister would be to take the UK out of the Convention, and that “only Reform can stop the boats” – but the actual policy is opaque.

The promise is: “Illegal migrants who come to the UK will be detained and deported. And if needed, migrants in small boats will be picked up and taken back to France.” The first part assumes that other countries would want them back, which is not always true, and therefore leaves the problem of what to do if returns aren’t accepted.

Simply taking people back to France violates French sovereignty and would provoke defensive action by the French navy, or worse. Using the Royal Navy, as is sometimes suggested, to push or tow boats into French or “international” waters (far away from the Channel) carries the obvious risk of catastrophic loss of life, and would be resisted by the navy. None of that will stop Reform UK from making strong progress in the council elections, though, if only as the beneficiaries of a protest vote.

Even if Labour, the Tories or Reform were to succeed in deterring the present flow of refugees being picked up by the RNLI or Border Force, that might only create a new incentive to land on the south coast of England in a completely clandestine fashion, with the migrants not making an asylum claim and quietly melting into the grey economy (which is why Tony Blair advocates ID cards as a method of control).

What’s the answer?

If we knew that...