What does the election result mean for German politics?

Sean O’Grady takes a look at what the outcome says about the country’s left-right balance, and how it might play out for the main parties

Friedrich Merz’s conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), very closely allied with its Bavarian partner the Christian Social Union (CSU), has come first in the German elections. Merz will thus be the next chancellor of Germany, but without an overall majority in the lower house of the German parliament, the Bundestag, he cannot yet form a government. Therefore the present chancellor, Olaf Scholz, leader of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) (which suffered a rout), will continue until a coalition is formed.

The obvious winners in the election were the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), who took 10.3 million votes, doubling their vote share to 20.8 per cent. Merz called this election the “last chance” for Germany’s traditional parties to prove that they can make the system work...

Who lost?

It’s easy to see who lost. Scholz has presided over a “traffic light” coalition with the Greens and the liberal Free Democrats (FPD) since 2021, but tensions between the parties, exacerbated by the energy crisis and economic stagnation, triggered the collapse of the unpopular administration, and a snap election. All three parties suffered setbacks, with the FPD losing its representation in the Bundestag (for which 5 per cent of the vote is needed). Scholz’s career is now over.

The SPD, a party that has been part of the German political fabric since the 19th century, scored 16.4 per cent, just about its lowest ever. What was once a natural party of government is now a mere rump. It’s also true, though, that the 28.5 per cent of the vote won by the CDU/CSU is also miserable by historical standards.

So the SPD is out of government?

Funnily enough, no. Merz wants to construct another “grand coalition”, between his party, its sister party the CSU, and the SPD – together they would have a working majority. He says it will take until Easter to sort out the programme and allot jobs.

Is Germany lurching to the right?

It’s a bit more complicated. The CDU/CSU pushed its vote up by about five percentage points, and AfD by 10 percentage points, so plainly there has been a shift. However, it’s also true that parties of the hard left (Die Linke) and populist left (BSW) also made progress, amassing about 14 per cent between them.

Why did AfD do so well?

The most urgent issues have been acknowledged by Merz – immigration and integration; the war in Ukraine and relations with Russia; and industrial stagnation. A prize win for AfD, for example, was Wolfsburg, historical home of Volkswagen and a symbol both of German industrial prowess and, now, of the problems of transition to a greener economy. It was once an impregnable stronghold for the SPD and trade unionism. It’s worth mentioning that Elon Musk’s energetic promotion of AfD didn’t make much difference.

Is Germany polarised?

Very much so, and strikingly. The old post-war consensus on the Atlantic alliance, a tolerant society, refugees, and recognition of Germany’s history is being fractured. AfD now dominates the old East Germany, and is scoring well among the young. But the hard/populist left is also doing well – and there’s a clear gender divide. Thus, among 18- to 24-year-old female voters, a remarkable 34 per cent voted Linke, another 14 per cent AfD, and 6 per cent for BSW. But among young men, AfD was the strongest party – on 25 per cent, against 21 per cent for the leftist parties.

Could it happen in the UK?

There are parallels. The east of Germany, like parts of England and south Wales, has been “left behind” and is not fully “levelled up” even 35 years after reunification. Irregular migration and Islamophobia are also part of Reform UK’s appeal; and Euroscepticism, nationalism, and conspiracy theories also tend to circulate in such circles. However, there is only slight and patchy support for alternative and populist left-wing candidates in Britain – confined to pro-Gaza and “independent” candidates, including Jeremy Corbyn.

The big difference is in the electoral system: the once stable regime of proportional representation in Germany nowadays tends to fragment the party system and allow extreme groups into parliament. Thus far, all of Nigel Farage’s vehicles have been prevented from gaining more than a foothold in the House of Commons. But, just as Merz says about his new government being the last chance for the old parties, so it may be for Keir Starmer’s administration.