What does Marine Le Pen’s conviction mean for France and Europe?

Mass nationwide protests have been called by her supporters, and she may even clear her name in the courts as Sean O’Grady explains

Marine Le Pen, de facto leader of French far-right party Rassemblement National (RN), is banned from contesting any public election for five years after being found guilty of embezzlement.

She says she will appeal but this will take time and possibly puts her planned bid for the French presidency in 2027 out of reach.

Her unexpected conviction has been met with a fierce backlash from allies across the world, notably including President Donald Trump and Giorgia Meloni, prime minister of Italy. Viktor Orban, prime minister of Hungary declared on social media “Je Suis Marine!”.

France, already unstable after the snap parliamentary elections last summer, now has the prospect of public protests in support of Le Pen.

What did Marine Le Pen do wrong?

A glib answer would be that she got caught. She was arraigned on charges of embezzling funds from the European parliament, of which she was a long-term member, for more than a decade. She did not personally benefit from any such activity, but it was found that she had diverted monies intended to be used for her work as an MEP into her cash-strapped political party. This was against the rules and a criminal act, but experts on the ways of the European parliament attest it is a not uncommon practice across the political spectrum.

Her supporters say she is the victim of a conspiracy by the French state to prevent her bid for power in 2027. Her critics argue that, whatever other people were up to, she is not above the law.

Is she going to prison?

Certainly not immediately. The injunction against her standing for election doesn’t affect her status as a member of the French parliament, and the four-year nominal jail sentence would only begin after she has exhausted all the possible legal avenues to lift the ban or reverse the verdict.

Even if she is unsuccessful, she wouldn’t be incarcerated: she would serve two years under surveillance wearing an ankle bracelet, and then a two-year suspended sentence provided she stays out of trouble. She is also liable now for a €100,000 fine.

Will her appeal be successful?

Hard to say, but it could take so long, and be such a distraction, that it effectively takes her out of the running for the Elysee Palace.

Are far-right leaders now being constrained by democratic norms?

Yes. It comes after Romanian courts cancelled a dubious election marred by Russian interference and as the former president of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, faces trial for conspiring to overthrow his freely-elected successor.

Only Trump has bucked the trend, making a remarkable comeback after his 6 January 2021 insurrection and now the beneficiary of a Supreme Court decision granting him wide immunity from prosecution in the pursuit of his official duties.

What does it mean for France?

It is huge. Le Pen was the favourite to win the 2027 contest, and already holds an effective veto in the French parliament, and, thus, on President Emmanuel Macron’s domestic agenda. She has made him a lame duck at home, and she had high hopes of succeeding him.

And Europe?

As the European Union’s second largest economy after Germany, now exercising its traditional role as political driving force in Brussels, France matters.

Le Pen probably would not now try to lead France out of the EU – that would likely mean a referendum – but she and her numerous far-right allies across the continent and in the European parliament, could steer it in a radically different direction. The populist/nationalist/far-right hold power or exercise influence in most EU member states, notably Italy, the Netherlands, Hungary, Slovakia and Finland – with the AfD in Germany now the official opposition. It would not take much to turn the EU into some sort of Trumpian power.

With Le Pen out of the running for the French presidency, it is much less likely Europe will fall into the hands of extremists.

Could her party still win the presidency in 2027?

Yes, and she could easily run the government from the back seat if another RN politician won. The problem for the RN is that her long political career and her profile mean that she’s much the best – possibly the only – credible candidate they offer. The nominal leader of the RN, Jordan Bardella, is a 29-year old protégé of Le Pen and close to the family; but he lacks experience and few have much confidence in him as a candidate for the next president of the republic.

On the other hand the right-wing backlash from the Le Pen judgment might actually galvanise her movement and propel it to success. Certainly the RN will remain a significant parliamentary bloc, which spells a prolonged period of “immobilisme” if the presidency is held by some more centrist figure – remembering that Macron cannot again.

Where does it leave Britain and the ‘coalition of the willing’?

Provided Le Pen remains barred, in a stronger position. Le Pen and her various political vehicles have long been sympathetic to Vladimir Putin and would be unwilling to commit French forces in the east. As for Brexit, Le Pen would be unwilling to grant any special treatment to the UK, in trade or in defence.