Forget Labour, Runcorn by-election’s biggest loser could be the Tories

Reform is ahead in the polls and the bookies’ favourite to win Keir Starmer’s first by-election test but, as Sean O’Grady explains, the result could be just as embarrassing for Kemi Badenoch

The political atmosphere is hotting up in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election where the current MP Mike Amesbury has declared he will step aside following his conviction for assault. Labour has selected a new candidate, Karen Shore, a local teacher and councillor.

Adding to the mild excitement, Tory peer and amateur psephologist Michael Ashcroft commissioned an opinion poll in the constituency and the result suggested Reform UK would take the seat. Bookies also put Nigel Farage’s party marginally ahead. There is still plenty of time until polling day, and much can change, although a punch-up on Main Street in Frodsham can hopefully be ruled out.

When will the Runcorn and Helsby by-election be held?

Amesbury, who has been sitting as an independent since losing the Labour whip in October, has yet to formally quit the Commons; it requires him to go through an arcane procedure in which he must apply for the ancient post of Crown Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead – a sinecure that is technically an office of profit under the crown, thus disqualifying the holder from membership of the Commons. After that, the convention is that the member’s former party will move a motion in parliament for a writ to be issued by the speaker for a by-election.

This gives Labour the luxury of timing the by-election when it best suits them; given they will have a scrap on their hands and could certainly lose, they might try to leave it to coincide with the local elections on 1 May when the likely Tory rout in English county councils would partially obscure the humiliating loss of a safe Labour seat.

Who will win in Runcorn and Helsby?

In last July’s general election, Mr Amesbury won the seat for Labour with 22,358 votes, with Reform UK a distant second on 7,662.

According to the new Lord Ashcroft poll, Reform will win with an impressive 20 per cent swing, on the following results (with changes from the July 2024 general election in parentheses):

Reform UK: 40 per cent (-30 per cent)

Labour: 35 per cent (-18 per cent)

Conservative: 10 per cent (-6 per cent)

Liberal Democrats: 8 per cent (+3 per cent)

Greens: 6 per cent (=)

According to the bookies, odds on Reform have tightened to 4/6 with Labour drifting a touch to 6/5. But there’s much campaigning to go.

What could happen during the campaign?

It is really about which of Labour and Reform UK can get the vote out, and who can squeeze the other parties in what is even now a two-horse race.

Reform voters look more loyal and keen to get to the polling station. The 2024 Labour vote is actually fairly solid, according to the Ashcroft poll, with 80 per cent saying they’d stick with Starmer; but they also seem less likely to turn up on the day because they think Labour will win anyway.

As to the squeeze and recruiting voters, Reform should concentrate on the disaffected people who didn’t vote last year, and to aim for those who voted for Rishi Sunak last time round, rather than on Labour voters. Some 12 per cent of the Runcorn voters who opted for Labour last time say they will switch to Reform with 80 per cent sticking with Starmer. By contrast, only about half of Tories are staying with their old allegiance, with 37 per cent opting for Reform – a real haemorrhage. If Reform win this Labour seat it will be more thanks to former Tories and motivating the apathetic than actively attracting ex-Labour support.

Who are the candidates?

Wisely, Labour has chosen a thoroughly local candidate in Ms Shore – no Starmerite from London is being parachuted in. The other parties haven’t selected yet. The choice for Reform will be to let their candidate from last time, Jason Moorcroft, have another go, or to go with some wider-known contender for a high-profile run; this could include the self-styled bad boy of Brexit, Aaron Banks.

Who will lose?

Even at this point it seems obvious the biggest casualty will be the Conservative Party and, by extension, their leader Kemi Badenoch. In more normal circumstances – that is, with the Conservatives not facing extinction – an unpopular Labour government would mean an easy win for the Tories or maybe the Lib Dems. But with Farage prowling around, a poor showing will reignite questions about the fragmentation of the right and Badenoch’s performance (as will the local election results).

If Reform doesn’t win, with all the hype that’s going their way, it will be seen as a setback for Farage, even if they do quite well. Controversies about former Reform MP Rupert Lowe and the incipient civil war in Reform could deny them victory. A Lowe-supported “spoiler” candidate, official or unofficial, could also inflict some damage.

Neither the Lib Dems nor Greens have much to lose, and some of their supporters might be tempted to vote Labour tactically to keep the Farageites out.

What are the issues?

In national terms, the economy, NHS and immigration; but the single biggest drag on the Labour vote is the cut to the pensioners’ fuel allowance. Without that, Labour might well be favourites.