Could Trump really find a way to serve a third term as president?

Sean O’Grady looks at the chances of Donald Trump securing an extended stay in the White House

Not quite three months into his second term of office, Donald Trump has been dropping hints that he might actually run again, in 2028, and serve if elected. On any reasonable reading of the US constitution, that would be impossible; but, as ever, Trump won’t let a little thing like that get in the way.

Although recent events may mean that he becomes so obscenely unpopular that another term would be out of the question anyway, he’s made one Lazarus-style political comeback, and he might make another. Certainly the fanbase thinks so...

Why would he want to run again?

He likes the power and the opportunities it offers, to “make America great again” and to further his own and his family’s ambitions, perhaps even creating a Trump dynasty. He’d also enjoy the bragging rights of having won more contests and served more terms than any president since Franklin Roosevelt. FDR won a fourth consecutive term in 1944, and died in office in April 1945.

For the more devoted members of the Maga movement, it is very much a personality cult, and, as such, even the likes of JD Vance are regarded with suspicion. For true believers, only Donald J Trump counts, and they might well not vote for some mediocre substitute.

What does the constitution say?

In what was an act of posthumous spite against FDR and the Democrats, the Republicans secured the 22nd amendment to the constitution in 1951. It was so tightly drawn as to seem to permit no exceptions, eg for a non-consecutive third term, such as Trump may be planning for himself.

It reads: “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.”

Is there a loophole?

Not really, but a lawyer could try to argue something.

Could the 22nd amendment be amended or cancelled?

Yes. The most conventional means would be to pass a resolution in both houses of Congress by a two-thirds majority, and then have it ratified by three-quarters of the 50 state legislatures (ie 38 of them) within seven years. Trump has a majority in both houses, but not large enough to do this, and neither does he have that backing in the states – though subsequent elections could theoretically achieve that.

Alternatively, a special convention could be called by two-thirds (34) of the states to make the change. It would then need to be ratified by three-quarters (38) of the state legislatures. Again, Trump probably wouldn’t have the votes.

How about doing a Medvedev?

Possible. It was how Vladimir Putin first evaded the Russian constitution’s term limits – by allowing his prime minister, Dmitry Medvedev, to run for president, with Putin as the new prime minister. In reality, Putin retained control, at least to an extent.

So, JD Vance, say, could run for president in 2028, with Trump on the ticket as the vice-presidential nominee. If they won, Vance could either immediately resign, in which case Vice-president Trump would become president – or be a Trump puppet.

There are some extremely abstruse arguments about whether the constitution even technically allows for this, and it’s plainly against the intent of the 22nd amendment. The 12th amendment bans anyone ineligible for the presidency from serving as vice-president (though maybe not from running for the vice-presidency).

Any other dodges?

Sure. Trump could try to persuade the Supreme Court to “interpret” the 22nd amendment in a more helpful manner, at some propitious moment in the electoral cycle.

What about defiance?

This seems to be the favoured option of Trump associate Steve Bannon. Trump could just run – somehow getting on the ballot – and if he wins, just ignore the constitution and claim a democratic mandate. We’ve kinda been there before, after all.

Wouldn’t a change mean Barack Obama could come back?

Not if they rigged the amendment so that you could only have a third term if your first two terms were not consecutive – a blatant manipulation of the constitutional machinery.

Wouldn’t Trump be too old?

Not constitutionally, but maybe practically and politically – as Joe Biden’s experience shows. Trump would 82 at his putative next inauguration in January 2029, a little older than Biden was when he ended his tenure, and thus he would break the record for oldest incumbent ever.

If he served the full third term, Trump would be approaching 87 when he retired. Or he could try to run a fourth time, in 2032, and overtake FDR (albeit still not consecutively) in 2033, and finally give up in 2037, at the age of 90. So something to look forward to there.