A clear vote for change in the Middle East

After four weeks of campaigning and dramatic swings as voting moved from region to region, it looks as if the Lebanese election has brought decisive victory for the anti-Syrian alliance led by Saad Hariri, son of the assassinated former prime minister, Rafik Hariri. There is little doubting the relief being expressed at the final round, which ensures Mr Hariri's alliance has 72 seats in the 128-seat assembly.

After four weeks of campaigning and dramatic swings as voting moved from region to region, it looks as if the Lebanese election has brought decisive victory for the anti-Syrian alliance led by Saad Hariri, son of the assassinated former prime minister, Rafik Hariri. There is little doubting the relief being expressed at the final round, which ensures Mr Hariri's alliance has 72 seats in the 128-seat assembly.

Anything less than a clear majority for Mr Hariri would have left the country not only divided and uncertain, but also seared with a bitterness at the continued influence of the Syrians - still widely believed to have been behind the death of the charismatic Rafik. The alternative alliance - a motley grouping of Shias, pro-Syrian Sunnis, and Christian forces loyal to the contentious General Michel Aoun - never looked either very united or credible.

As it is, Mr Hariri's victory has brought a sense of real change and release from 30 years of domination by their neighbour. For the young in particular, celebrating in the Beirut square where only a few months ago they had been demonstrating in anger at Rafik's killing, yesterday was a joyous moment.

The result does not of itself, of course, mean a new dawn of democracy, still less the kind of pro-Western, amenable government that Washington and Paris - both of whom have energetically endorsed the anti-Syrian factions - would like. Under Lebanon's tortuous constitution, forged in the violence of civil war and sectarian conflict, seats in the parliament are allocated to ensure equal representation for Christian and Muslim. It is a structure designed to keep the various factions locked into the political process. But it is also a system that tends to emphasise sectarian differences, reduce interest in the election process (the turn-out figures were well below 50 per cent in most regions) and keep Shias in particular under-represented.

That matters in that one of the major tasks of the new government will be to tackle the thorny subject of disarming the Hizbollah in the south in accordance with UN resolutions. The US is anxious for this to proceed as quickly as possible. The politics within Lebanon may make that much more difficult, however.

Nor can any new government afford to take an entirely hostile view of Syria, which remains its largest trading partner and which continues to hold close interests through blood and previous relationships. Opposition to Syria united the victorious alliance under Mr Hariri - consisting of Druze, Sunnis and Christians - but it is not enough to sustain it in government. For that it will need all the political skills and patience, as well as outside support, that its new and inexperienced leader can muster.