Politics is a numbers game – and Rishi’s number may be up

In elections, you have to be able to count, writes John Rentoul. And when three constituencies head to the ballot box next week, there will be about 100,000 voters with an ominous message for the government

You need to be able to count up to five to know that Rishi Sunak has a problem with the promises he made at the start of the year (PA Wire)

Politics ultimately is about counting the votes, and on Thursday there will be about 100,000 votes to be counted in three by-elections. The results are already discounted – the government is likely to lose all three, two to Labour and one to the Liberal Democrats – but the meanings will be contested fiercely.

By-elections are like short films before the main feature, often featuring minor characters who become famous later on. Tony Blair fought a hopeless by-election in Beaconsfield in 1982 before becoming an MP the following year. In 1994, there were five by-elections on one day, two of which featured Theresa May and Philip Hammond in safe Labour seats. Indeed, four of those by-elections were in Labour seats, which Labour held with increased majorities. Only one, Eastleigh, was a Conservative seat, which the Liberal Democrats won, and where Nigel Farage stood for parliament for the first time.