Both parties are optimistic, whatever the polls say. Are they right to be?

Inside Westminster: It’s worth remembering that even the best-laid campaign plans can still leave any party at the mercy of unexpected events

Welcome to the topsy-turvy election. The mood at the top of both the Conservative and Labour parties is the opposite of what we might expect.

The Tories are cautiously optimistic the opinion polls point to an overall majority for Boris Johnson, but they are haunted by their own complacency at the 2017 election. “My fingers are still burning,” quipped one Tory candidate and former minister.

Similarly, Labour’s and Jeremy Corbyn’s poll ratings are poor, and yet the party is surprisingly optimistic, because it did much better than it expected two years ago. Labour was so convinced the Tories would win an overall majority that it had barely discussed what to do in the event of the hung parliament that materialised.