China may be on track to becoming the world’s largest economy, but it won’t last long

A quick back-of-an-envelope calculation suggests China could pass the US as early as 2030, but the US will overtake China again by the second half of the century, writes Hamish McRae

Ambitious young people from all over the world choose to study in the US, not China (Reuters)

China will pass the US in economic size in about 10 years’ time, maybe 15. But look towards the end of this century and the US will be number one again.

The first prediction comes from a number of economic studies, including the famous BRICs report by Goldman Sachs nearly 20 years ago. On some calculations, with exchange rates based on purchasing power parity rather than market exchange rates, China has already passed the US now.

These forecasts have received wide publicity, and have understandably helped provoke insecurity in the US and triumphalism in China. At least part of the current trade tensions between the two countries can be ascribed to this wider tussle for global economic supremacy.