The Trump White House thinks if you stop measuring climate change it isn’t happening – that’s wrong and dangerous

A former US Energy Secretary and distinguished physicist attacks the climate change denial and planned cutting of funds for research of the current US government

"Climate scientists believe the probability of adverse climate change is considerably higher than 50 per cent" (AP)

There are numerous people and politicians who enjoy the benefits of scientific discovery, but do not accept the compelling scientific evidence and overwhelming scientific consensus that humans are changing our climate.

There are others who admit the climate is changing, but the change is due to natural causes. Hence, they conclude there is nothing we can do about these changes. Others argue that the government should not spend money until we are certain of the predicted consequences of climate change.

The Earth climate system is extremely complex and there are considerable uncertainties in predicting future risks. However, the uncertainty does not lie in whether we are causing climate change, but in predicting with precision the consequences of our actions.

With each passing year, measurements tell us that the climate system is far more sensitive than we thought only a decade ago. Given these findings, it is prudent risk management take significant steps to mitigate the worst risks of climate change. We buy fire insurance even though we don’t expect that is even a 1 per cent chance our home to burn down. Climate scientists believe the probability of adverse climate change is considerably higher than 50 per cent.

What can science and technology do to help us mitigate and adapt to climate change? We need abundant, clean and inexpensive energy sources to power and feed the world. The population is projected by the United Nations to grow to 9.8 billion by 2050 and 11.2 billion by 2100. In short, we will need another industrial revolution, another agriculture revolution, and a water resource revolution.

Tremendous progress has been made in carbon-free energy sources such as wind and solar energy. Today, long term power purchase agreements of solar energy (signed contracts to purchase solar energy at an agreed upon price for 20 or more years) have decreased to 1/3rd of its price in 2012.

In many places in the world, solar power is becoming competitive with fossil energy. The cost of on-shore wind power has also declined and is approaching parity with fossil energy. Great progress is being made in reducing the cost of off-shore wind energy. I foresee at least 20 more years of declining costs for these forms of renewable energy.

We also need to de-carbonize our transportation system. The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) for personal transportation has begun. However, before EVs become the mainstream consumer choice, the cost must become competitive with internal combustion automobiles. The manufacturing cost of batteries for electric vehicles have declined to 1/6th of the price in 2007, and by 2019, the projected cost is 1/10th the cost in 2007.


 Steven Chu was the 12th US Energy Secretary 
 (AFP/Getty Images)

Perhaps in 6 to 10 years, further technical improvements can reduce the size and weight of today’s batteries by 3 times at no additional cost. With these advances, EVs will become the low-cost option.

The speed of recharging EVs is also essential for wide-scale adoption. Most people are not wealthy enough to own garages. Today’s fast-charging stations can add 140 miles in 20 minutes, but we need to decrease the charging time to 5 minutes.

I not only believe this is possible, I am working with a colleague at Stanford University to turn the dream into a reality. We are also developing a method of economically extracting lithium from sea water, thereby increasing the world supply of lithium 10,000-fold. With lithium-sulfur batteries that we and the others working towards, we hope to revolutionize personal transportation. Clean alternatives to liquid hydrocarbon fuels are also needed for airplanes and other forms of long-distance transportation.

There are numerous other technology developments needed before clean energy becomes the low-cost option for all our energy needs. Science is part of the solution, but we also need stable, long-term policies to fund visionary research and development. Policies are also need to guide the private sector investments needed to turn discovery and invention into wide-scale deployment.

Key members of the current U.S Administration doubt the scientific evidence of climate change. The proposed Presidential federal budget calls for stopping federal support of climate research including the cancelation of future satellite missions to monitor climate change. Perhaps they believe if we don’t measure changes in the climate, it is not happening.

The President’s proposed budget also calls for a drastic reduction of funding designed to lower the cost of clean energy and the capture of carbon from power, cement and steel. For example, their propose budget call for the elimination of the innovative new research program: ARPA-E which stands for Advanced Research Projects Agency – Energy. As Secretary of Energy, I was privileged to turn the recommendation into reality in 2009 as part of President Obama’s administration. This program enjoyed strong bipartisan support in Congress, and I hope the bi-partisan Congressional support of ARPA-E will continue.

[An] “earthrise” [photograph was] taken on Christmas Eve, 1968 during the Apollo 8 mission. As the capsule completed its final orbit around the moon, the capsule was turned to earthward. Astronaut Bill Anders, who took this picture, said, “We have come all this way to explore the moon and the most important thing is we have discovered the Earth.”

Since that time, we have discovered that we are changing the climate of our home. From this vantage point, we see a beautiful blue Earth rising above a bleak grey lunar landscape. The blackness of the surrounding space is a stark reminder that there is nowhere else we can go.

I close my remarks by asking the young students gather this week at the Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting to consider joining the effort to combat climate change. Now more than ever, we need talented young scientists and engineers to create the innovations needed for a prosperous and sustainable future.

Steven Chu was the US Energy Secretary between 2009 and 2013 and was awarded the Nobel Prize in Physics in 1997. This is an abridged version of the lecture that was delivered to young scientists at the 67^th Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting