Covid rates near me: Which areas could be placed into tier 4 next?

Some tier 3 areas have higher infection rate than those in tier 4

A man wears a protective face mask as he walks through Lincoln (AFP/Getty)

Several areas in England could be at risk of facing tougher coronavirus restrictions after Christmas amid rising cases, with some towns and cities having higher rates of infection than those in tier 4.

Boston in Lincolnshire is in tier 3 but saw an increase of 309 cases in seven days to take the local rate per 100,000 people to 440.3 – higher than some London boroughs.

Burnley in Lancashire recorded 373 new cases, taking the local rate to 419.5 per 100,000 people, while cases rose by 410 in the city if Lincoln to bring the rate to 412.9 per 100,000 people. Both have a higher rate than a number of tier 4 areas.

Mark Townsend, the leader of Burnley Council, suggests that if Burnley were to be put under tier 4 restrictions, it would not do so alone.

“Clearly, any decision needs to look carefully at the current situation, including increasing case numbers across the country and other relevant factors. It would not make sense for Burnley to be looked at in isolation,” he told The Independent.

The government’s chief scientific adviser has warned that a wider lockdown may be needed to curb the spread of a new variant of coronavirus, which triggered the introduction of tough tier 4 restrictions in London and across parts of southern and eastern England.

Sir Patrick Vallance said that the new variant of Covid-19 was appearing “everywhere” and increases in numbers over the next few weeks could be expected given the “inevitable mixing” over Christmas.

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“The evidence on this virus is that it spreads easily, it’s more transmissible, we absolutely need to make sure we have the right level of restrictions in place,” he said at a Downing Street news conference on Monday.

“I think it is likely that this will grow in numbers of the variant across the country and I think it’s likely, therefore, that measures will need to be increased in some places, in due course, not reduced.”

For small independent businesses in areas where tier 3 measures have proved unable to control the spread of the virus, the threat of tier 4 could be existential.

Sam Riches, the owner of The Bear House in Boston which sells cards, gifts and flowers, says another lockdown would “sink us”.

“We had [financial] help the first time (March lockdown) and we had a little bit of help the second time, but it won’t sustain lockdown after lockdown, which is basically what tier 4 is,” she told The Independent.

Meanwhile, Barbara Biddulph, who owns the Allsorts gift shop in Burnley, says she is annoyed with government inaction and lax social distancing, which she believes has contributed to rising cases.

“He (Boris Johnson) acts too slowly, it’s always an afterthought,” she says.

The New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group met again on Monday to consider the new variant, and while it does not appear to alter the course of the disease, it does spread more easily.

But Professor Neil Ferguson, a member of the government advisory group, said his best assessment is that the virus will decline over the next two weeks for both the variant and non-variant.

“Contact rates tend to be lower over Christmas with the tightening of Christmas measures and tier 4 for in place in the highest areas,” he said.

The government is next due to review the tier system on 30 December.

Other areas at risk of being put under tier 4 restrictions:

(Name of local authority, number of new cases in seven days to 17 December, rate of new cases per 100,000 people)

Stoke-on-Trent, 872, 340.1

Rushmoor, 319, 337.2

East Staffordshire, 398, 332.3

West Lindsey, 309, 323

Pendle, 297, 322.4

South Tyneside, 479, 317.3

Wolverhampton, 799, 303.4

Rugby, 327, 300.2

Uttlesford, 263, 288.1

Leicester, 1,019, 287.7

Hyndburn, 232, 286.3

Wealden, 462, 286.1

Northampton, 618, 275.1

Eastbourne, 279, 268.9

Hartlepool, 249, 265.8

Oadby and Wigston, 150, 263.1

Cannock Chase, 260, 258

Gedling, 304, 257.9

Bassetlaw, 302, 257.1

Cherwell, 386, 256.5

Oxford, 390, 255.8

Preston, 364, 254.3

Sandwell, 835, 254.2

Staffordshire Moorlands, 249, 253

Scarborough, 273, 251

Mansfield, 274, 250.7

Birmingham, 2,860, 250.5

Blackburn with Darwen, 375, 250.5

Data source: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases