Brexit: Majority of Conservative Party members oppose Theresa May’s plans and would prefer no-deal, poll finds

Research dashes hopes in Downing Street that party associations may have put pressure on MPs over Christmas to back her deal

A majority of Conservative Party members do not support Theresa May’s agreement with Brussels and want the UK to quit the EU in a no-deal Brexit, a new study has found.

The poll of more than 1,200 rank-and-file Tory members revealed overwhelming opposition to the deal the prime minister has painstakingly tried to salvage over Christmas in talks with European leaders.

It also lays waste to hopes in Downing Street that local party associations may have put pressure on MPs over the break to back her deal.

A large number of members told pollsters Ms May had handled negotiations badly, that the deal she is seeking fails to respect the referendum result and that no deal is now their preferred option.

The data underlines the extremely difficult position the prime minister finds herself in – under pressure in the commons to simultaneously consider a second referendum and toughen her stance, whilst facing the prospect of demolishing her own party base if she backs away from Brexit in any way.

Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London, said: “Mrs May has failed not only to convince the country and quite probably parliament that her Brexit deal is a good one, she has also failed to convince the party faithful.

“If anything, grassroots Tories are even less impressed than Tory MPs.”

The research was undertaken by YouGov for the Party Members Project, an initiative funded by the Economic and Social Research Council involving academics from Queen Mary and the University of Southampton.

“If some of those MPs can be persuaded to back the prime minister’s deal, it won’t be because they’ve come under pressure to do so from their local party members over the Christmas break,” said Prof Bale.

The study found that 59 per cent of Tory members opposed Ms May’s deal, compared to 38 per cent who supported it and 3 per cent who did not have an opinion.

More than half, 53 per cent, also said that the deal “does not respect the result of the referendum”, comparing to 42 per cent who said that it does.

People were then asked how they would vote in a referendum where there were three options – to remain, leave with the deal or leave without one – and in which they are able to put down a first and second preference.

Some 57 per cent opted to leave with no deal as their first choice, with only 23 per cent putting Ms May’s deal and 15 per cent backing the option to remain in the EU.

Forty per cent then put the prime minister’s proposals as their second choice, with 19 per cent putting no deal and 6 per cent opting to stay as a member of the bloc.

The survey showed large majorities of members think both that a no-deal Brexit will have a positive impact on the economy in the medium to long term and that warnings of disruption have been exaggerated.

A slim majority, 51 per cent, said they thought Ms May was doing “well”, but almost as many, 48 per cent said she was doing “badly” to some degree.

But despite wavering support for Ms May and her deal, an overwhelming majority of members – 83 per cent – opposed the idea of having an election, while 82 per cent would not back a further referendum.

Yesterday, the prime minister’s Northern Irish partners in government raised the stakes further in the Brexit talks, saying there is “no need” for key parts of the deal she agreed with the EU.

Nigel Dodds, DUP deputy leader, argued that the withdrawal agreement she is seeking “flies in the face” of the government’s own commitments relating to the border between the north and the republic.

His comments came after a meeting in Downing Street, and are a blow to the prime minister as she desperately tries to convince the Northern Irish party and her own MPs to back her proposals ahead of a vote in the coming weeks.