Croydon Central: How will voter apathy affect the race in one of the UK’s tightest seats?

Tory MP and housing minister Gavin Barwell beat Labour candidate Sarah Jones by just 165 votes in the 2015 General Election – and the race is looking to be even tighter this time around

The race in Croydon Central was one of the tightest contests in the 2015 general election, with Tory MP and housing minister Gavin Barwell pipping Labour candidate Sarah Jones by just 165 votes.

The constituency delivered the fourth closest election result in the UK two years ago, with just the tiny fraction of 52,000 votes altogether standing between the two parties. Now, the two candidates are set for a rematch and with Labour steadily closing the gap with the Tories in recent polls, Ms Jones believes Croydon Central will be turning red in a matter of days.

​“It’s going to be very, very close,” Ms Jones says. “I have had people over the weekend saying to me, ‘last week I was voting Conservative, this week I’m voting Labour’.”

In Croydon Central, she says people are frustrated by Brexit negotiations, as well as cuts to local services. “People are thinking right, actually, you know the choice is clear,” she says. “You can’t trust the Tories because they’re breaking their promises everywhere they go.”

Labour candidate Sarah Jones says she believes this year’s election is too close to call

“It was a really close seat here last time,” Mr Barwell admits of the 2015 election. “We just managed to hold on here in Croydon Central. I think we ran a great campaign and as a local MP I’ve got strong support and those two things were just enough to get us over the line.”

But he believes the upcoming election on 8 June will be different, with the weight of Brexit negotiations ahead overshadowing any other issue on the campaign trail.

“This is a seat that voted very narrowly. There’s a very narrow divide,” Mr Barwell says.

Like many parts of London, Croydon bucked the national trend with the Brexit vote, with 54.3 per cent voting in favour of the UK’s continued EU membership and 45.7 per cent voting Leave. The area saw a voter turnout of 69 per cent.

“I think what we need is the right Brexit deal. One that addresses the concerns that led some people to vote Leave, but keeps some of the good things about the EU that those that voted Remain care about,” Mr Barwell says. “The key therefore is getting the right person to lead those negotiations.

“The question people have to ask themselves is whether they think Theresa May is the right person to get that deal or Jeremy Corbyn. I’m clear on what I think the answer is,” he adds.

Theresa May and Croydon Central MP Gavin Barwell face a tighter race than they likely expected when the Prime Minister announced the snap election (PA)

But residents in the constituency seem less clear on who Britain’s next leader should be – and perhaps more concerning, they don’t seem to care, either.

A cloud of voter apathy hangs heavy in the air, with several constituents, worn down by Brexit fatigue, telling The Independent they have no plans to make it out to the polls.

On Ms Jones’s canvassing route, an elderly woman tells the Labour candidate she’s simply “had enough” and doesn’t know who she will be voting for even if she does make it out to the polling station. She begins to tell the candidate about how difficult it has been lately to get by, but she cuts herself short, saying: “I don’t know. I just don’t know,” before closing the door.

Others, however, are adamant that on 8 June, they’re sure they won’t be heading to their local polling station.

“For me, it would be the Tories. I know that’s really controversial, but they have made it better,” says 28-year-old Catarina Shaw. Theresa May “has made it better,” she adds. “I mean I want to give Theresa May a chance to actually properly get a vote and make a change.”

Catarina Shaw says she doesn’t plan on voting this year after seeing the aftermath of the EU referendum

But, the young woman says: “Because nothing ever really changes ... I’ve just decided not to vote this year because I don’t feel that my one vote really does make a difference.” Ms Shaw says she has always voted in previous elections, but after the EU referendum, she has lost her faith in the promises of British politicians.

“It was Brexit that changed my opinion on absolutely everything now and I’ve just lost faith in any government, anything,” she says. “I voted to Leave and now I regret it. I don’t think I realised the implications,” she says. “Which is why I’m not voting now because the Government will tell you something and then the absolute opposite happens.”

It seems to be a sentiment that’s shared especially by young voters in the constituency.

Croydon voted narrowly in the EU referendum, with 54.3 per cent voting Remain and 45.7 per cent voting Leave

“To be honest, I haven’t even thought about it,” says 23-year-old Joac Concha. “I feel misinformed. I don’t think any one is better than the other.” The 23-year-old says he has no plans to vote this month. “I feel that no matter which political party I choose, there’s going to be ups and downs to it.”

​Croydon Central represents one of 50 Tory seats where a combined progressive vote would be enough to oust the sitting MP, according to a recent poll. Analysis of a YouGov seat projection found that a Labour-led alliance of progressive parties could in fact see Mr Barwell ousted if voters in the constituency decide to vote “tactically” for Ms Jones, the candidate who has the best chance of unseating him.

Of course, for that to happen, voters would need to show up to the polls in the first place – and in Croydon Central, it seems many residents plan on being anywhere but.