What does Joe Biden’s approval rating mean for the midterms?

History suggests that the Democrats might be heading for a fall if the president’s popularity is anything to go by, writes Chris Stevenson

The omens are not looking good for Joe Biden (AP)

There was plenty of talk during the summer, including from this writer, about an upswing in the fortunes of the Democrats in the opinion polls, and whether they could continue the momentum as we approach the midterm elections in November.

The same was also true of Joe Biden’s approval rating, which in August jumped to its highest point in a year, hitting 44 per cent, according to Gallup. However, that dipped back to 42 per cent in September, closer to the level at which it had sat for most of 2022. Those two percentage points might not seem like much of a difference, but they would have been something for the White House to latch on to.

Now, compare that latest 42 per cent rating (from a poll ending 16 September) with those of the previous three incumbents of the White House, at the same point in their presidency, during their first (or only) term in office. Donald Trump’s rating was 40 per cent (30 September 2018), while Barack Obama’s was 46 per cent (19 September 2010), and approval for George W Bush stood at 70 per cent (16 September 2002).