Canada elections: Justin Trudeau narrowly ahead of Stephen Harper as voters go to the polls

Mr Trudeau enjoys a 37.1% showing in the latest CTV/Globe and Mail poll

With signs of the momentum shifting to his opponents in the last hours of the Canadian election, Prime Minister Stephen Harper attempted at the weekend to harness last-minute support at a rally in the Toronto suburbs headlined by Rob Ford, a former city mayor who drew global scorn for cocaine abuse.

The spectacle of Mr Harper appearing at the often raucous event attended by nearly 2,000 supporters of Mr Ford, now a councilman, and of his brother Doug Ford, who remain beloved of the conservative right, was a reminder of the seemingly tight corner he finds himself in as he fights for a fourth term.

After weeks when the three main parties seemed tied, the final stretch of an unusually long campaign that started in late August, has seen the Liberal Party eke out a small edge, which may or may not be enough to bring victory for its young leader, Justin Trudeau, when voters go to the polls on 19 October.

While a majority of Canadians tell pollsters they are ready for a change of direction after nearly a decade of Mr Harper – he was first elected Prime Minister in 2006 – the opposition nonetheless remains divided with both the Liberals and the New Democrats, led by Tom Mulcair, vying to take the reins in Ottawa.


 Mr Harper presents himself as a safe pair of hands for the economy, even though growth is almost non-existent
 (REUTERS/Mark Blinch)

As well as being hurt by a stagnant economy and weak Canadian dollar – after a period of near parity with the US dollar it has now fallen to just 77 cents against the greenback – Mr Harper appears also to have suffered a backlash after trying to exploit a court ruling that said his government erred in insisting that Muslim women could not wear a face covering, like a niqab, while taking an oath of citizenship.

It is partly the fury of more progressively-minded Canadians at the perceived assault by Mr Harper on minority religions that has propelled Mr Trudeau to a 37.1% showing in the latest CTV/Globe and Mail poll, against 29.4% for Mr Harper’s Tories and 23.7% for the New Democrats.

Doug Ford, who was Toronto Councilman when his brother was mayor, echoed many Conservative candidates at the rally on 17 October by stirring fears of what Mr Trudeau, whose charismatic father, Pierre Trudeau, led Canada as a Liberal for most of the 1970s and early eighties, might mean for the country.

“Make no mistake, God help this county, it will be an absolute disaster if Justin Trudeau and Kathleen Wynne (Liberal provincial leader in Ontario) were running this country,” Mr Ford said, drawing jeers from the crowd. In his brief speech at the event, Mr Harper amplified his message that Canada would be better off not taking the risk of electing new leaders.

“It is all about protecting jobs, protecting hardworking families, protecting local businesses,” he declared, in an open-collared shirt. “We all know that were part of a very unstable global economy … a vote for (the Conservatives) is a vote to protect our jobs.”

Mr Trudeau senior, who died in 2000, is still remembered by many Canadians for instilling ‘Trudeaumania” as a glamorous leader who helped burnish Canada’s international standing. Painted by Mr Harper as inconsequential and a lightweight, Mr Trudeau, 43, who was the late Mr Trudeau’s eldest son, has rather shown himself an energetic and skilled campaigner and debater.

Mr Harper, whose relations with Washington have been strained by the continued hesitation of President Barack Obama to approve a new pipeline to carry Alberta oil sands crude across the US to the Gulf of Mexico, presents himself as a safe pair of hands for the economy, even though growth is almost non-existent. The oil and gas industry in the West has meanwhile been hammered by falling global prices.

He has also repeatedly emphasised national security, defending Canada’s stingy response to the waves of refugees coming out of Syria by suggesting that opening the country’s doors to more of them might mean letting in terrorists and extremists.