New conflict looms over Libyan capital Tripoli as rebel general threatens war

Khalifa Haftar may see opportunity to take capital amid regional uncertainty

The capital of Libya on Friday was girding for a possible full-on armed conflict pitting the country’s two major military alliances against each other as international officials sought to stave off the battle.

UN secretary general Antonio Guterres struck a pessimistic tone after meeting with Khalifa Haftar, the self-declared field marshal of the eastern-based Libyan National Army, which had amassed troops and what appeared to be brand new military vehicles – probably shipped from the United Arab Emirates – south of the city near Gharyan.

“I leave Libya with a heavy heart and deeply concerned. I still hope it is possible to avoid a bloody confrontation in and around Tripoli,” he wrote on Twitter. “The UN is committed to facilitating a political solution and, whatever happens, the UN is committed to supporting the Libyan people.”

Some 15,000 of Mr Haftar’s forces were on the outskirts of the capital, Tripoli, planning to advance to its centre, Akram Bouhlaiga, one of the field marshal’s top aides, told The Independent. “We do not want destruction,” he said. “We want to liberate the country from terrorists, to secure the people and to have dignity for the people.”

An alliance of armed groups protecting the city, loyal to a rival government as well as the UN-backed authority, mobilised at Tripoli’s entrances and prepared for war as forces from the powerful central Libyan city of Misrata flooded in on pick-up trucks mounted with machine guns to bolster the capital’s defences against a man many see as a military strongman.

The Tripoli-based groups rejected the idea of a military leader taking the city. “Libya will only be a civil state,” the Tripoli Protection Force was quoted as saying.

Officials across the world scrambled to avert yet another round of armed conflict in the Mediterranean city of 1.2 million, which has been a battlefield for rival militias for years.

Mr Guterres met Mr Haftar in Libya on Friday, a day after meeting Fayez al-Sarraj, the internationally recognised prime minister, in Tripoli.

The UK called for an emergency meeting of the UN security council on Friday. A statement issued by the UK, US, France, Italy, and the UAE cited concerns about the fighting and called for a de-escalation, but did not identify any belligerents.

“At this sensitive moment in Libya’s transition, military posturing and threats of unilateral action only risk propelling Libya back towards chaos,” said the statement.

“We strongly believe that there is no military solution to the Libya conflict. Our governments oppose any military action in Libya and will hold accountable any Libyan faction that precipitates further civil conflict.”

It remained unclear whether any clashes had yet begun. So far Mr Haftar’s forces managed to negotiate the handover or declaration of neutrality of towns on Tripoli’s outskirts. Reports from Tripoli and photographs posted to social media also suggested that dozens of his men had surrendered to the Tripoli militias.

A witness inside the capital described long queues forming at petrol stations and growing anxiety about an impending conflict, as well as gunfire and distant rocket blasts along the city’s southern periphery. After eight years of near continuous chaos and armed skirmishes between rival militias battling for turf in the capital, many Tripolitans have said they would welcome the type of stability Mr Haftar has promised, while others have vowed to fight him.

Libya splintered into squabbling, armed factions following the Nato-backed uprising that toppled longtime ruler Muammar Gaddafi’s regime in 2011. An armed force led by Mr Haftar and a government based in the east now vies for power with a government backed by a collection of militias in the country’s west.

Mr Haftar, a one-time army officer loyal to Gaddafi, spent years in exile in the US state of Virginia before returning and eventually declaring war on the country’s interim authorities in 2014. His sudden decision to make a lunge for the capital comes ahead of 14 April peace talks, brokered by UN envoy Ghassan Salame, in the western city of Ghadames.

But many wonder whether some countries are playing a duplicitous game on Libya. Russia, for example, staunchly backs Mr Haftar as a force that opposes Islamism, but claims to support the UN-backed authority of Mr Sarraj.

On Thursday a leading Russian lawmaker praised Mr Haftar. “If his troops bring order to Libya, stop the activities of bandit groups in the country, which terrorise the people, it will be good,” Vladimir Dzhabarov, deputy chair of the foreign policy committee of the Russian parliament’s upper house, was quoted as saying by the Interfax news agency.

Despite co-signing the UK’s statement, US secretary of state Mike Pompeo was tepid when asked about Mr Haftar’s declaration of war on the capital.

“We’ve been following the UN process, trying to do the best we can to be a positive force to deliver a good solution for the people of Libya and increase stability there,” he told reporters on Thursday.

Both the UAE and Egypt, which also condemned the escalation, have strongly backed Mr Haftar with weapons and military support, including airstrikes targeting the forces of the western Libyan militias.

The UAE operates the al-Khadim airbase, where many of Mr Haftar’s new weapons have been delivered.

Turkey and Qatar both publicly back the UN peace process but have been accused of supporting the Islamist-leaning western alliances of militias.

Though France has invested in the UN-backed peace process, it has also been cooperating militarily with Mr Haftar in the east. French foreign minister Jean-Yves Le Drian visited both Mr Sarraj and Mr Haftar last month.

“The international community is asking for a political solution whilst refusing to hold back Haftar,” said Anas el-Gomati, director of the Sadeq Institute, a think tank.

“The main problem is that they’re not penalising or sanctioning Haftar.”

The escalation in tensions comes just weeks after Mr Sarraj and Mr Haftar met in Abu Dhabi to hammer out an agreement.

Insiders say the meeting ended far more grimly than publicly described, with both men refusing to shake hands. Mr Gomati said Mr Haftar had insisted on a political formula that Mr Sarraj had rejected, setting the stage for the current confrontation.

Mr Haftar may have also seen an opportunity to take the capital amid regional uncertainty.

Algeria, a powerful guarantor of North African stability, is undergoing massive political convulsions following the resignation of its longtime president Abdelaziz Bouteflika.

And Turkey, a patron of the Tripoli government, has been consumed by the result of local elections that have turned its gaze inward.

The dwindling finances of the country’s east may have pressured Mr Haftar to act. “This offensive has been in the works for more than a year now,” Claudia Gazzini, Libya director at the International Crisis Group, told The Independent.

“The budget stream that allowed eastern authorities to fund themselves has been facing problems. They could be trying to reach Tripoli to change the rules of the game.”

Asked about the timing of the operation, Mr Haftar’s spokesperson Mr Bouhlaiga said: “Now we are ready for that and now it is the voice of the people calling from Tripoli.”

Mr Haftar is considered a toxic, polarising figure by many Libyans, who sometimes see him as a kind of imposing strongman akin to Gaddafi. Mr Haftar’s war to take Benghazi, in the east, stretched for three years and destroyed much of the city.

Winning Tripoli back, especially if the Misrata militias come to the capital’s aid, will probably take longer and be bloodier, but he may calculate that he will be victorious in the long run.

“His supply chain has been refortified and replenished by the UAE,” said Mr Gomati. “He also has an air force.”