Brexit will find no resolution in pointless cross-party talks, but it will in a second referendum

Theresa May’s attempts to negotiate with Labour should now be drawn to a swift close, and a Final Say taken back to parliament

Monday 13 May 2019 16:45 BST
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Tom Watson says it would be 'difficult' for his party to pass a Brexit deal without another referendum

It is “crunch week” for the talks between the government and opposition on Brexit, according to ministers. The problem is that they have been saying that for some weeks now.

There was a brief glimmer of hope after both the Conservatives and Labour performed poorly at this month’s local elections in England. But there has been precious little sign of progress since.

Opinion polls ahead of next week’s European parliament elections show that both parties face an even stiffer test, and remind us that Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn have limited room for manoeuvre.

Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party is ahead on 30 per cent, according to an average of the polls on how people will vote on 23 May. Labour is second on 24 per cent and the Tories share third place with the Liberal Democrats on 13 per cent, while Change UK is on 8 per cent and the Greens are on 5 per cent.

One reading of these surveys and the council elections is that parties that offer clarity prosper while those serving up a diet of obfuscation are punished by the voters.

Mr Corbyn’s equivocation on Brexit has finally caught up with him. His frontbenchers give very different answers when asked to state the party’s position: for some, Labour is the “party of Remain and reform”, as the deputy leader Tom Watson said on Monday. For others, including Mr Corbyn himself, Labour accepts the 2016 referendum verdict, and wants to leave the EU with a deal.

Mr Watson and Sir Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, have no doubt taken a look at the polls and decided to send a signal to Remain voters having understandable doubts about backing Labour next week.

They both made clear that a confirmatory referendum must be part of any agreement with the Tories. Sir Keir said a Final Say vote is needed to deliver a sustainable majority in the Commons, warning that “probably 120 if not 150” Labour MPs would not back a deal without it. These numbers are a clear sign of how opinion has shifted towards a referendum in recent months.

Mr Corbyn, while keen to appeal to Remainers and Leavers alike, might not welcome the intervention by his two senior colleagues. He prefers vaguer talk about a referendum being “an option”.

But he is out of step with Labour’s 500,000 members, to whom he promised a bigger influence on policy when he ran for the leadership in 2015.

Many of them are deeply concerned about his Brexit stance and some are voting with their feet, a dangerous development Mr Corbyn would do well to address rather than offer more fudge and mudge on the most critical issue facing the country.

The Labour leader might long to return to the politics of austerity that served him so well at the 2017 general election, but he must live in the world as it is. Brexit is the new fault line, and voters will not take kindly to parties that try to blur it.

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However, the growing support inside Labour for a referendum may have a chilling effect on the Brexit negotiations.

Although more senior Tories are coming round to the idea, Ms May remains implacably opposed.

The two parties are already struggling to agree on a customs union and how to “entrench” any agreement so that Ms May’s successor cannot tear it up, a crucial issue when her days in Downing Street are clearly numbered.

She should swallow her pride and accept that making her deal conditional on a referendum would enhance its prospects. Her refusal to do so makes it even harder to see how the negotiations with Labour can succeed.

Although both parties seem reluctant to put the process out of its misery, it is surely on its last legs.

The talks should now be drawn to a swift close, and the Brexit question taken back to parliament for Ms May’s last attempt to salvage her deal. In these Commons votes, she should allow a proper, unwhipped vote on a Final Say referendum.

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