Narendra Modi's Pakistan visit calls for cautious diplomatic optimism

Since independence in 1947, relations between India and Pakistan have been continuously troublesome

Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif (R) talks with his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi in Lahore, Pakistan, December 25, 2015 (Reuters)

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi paid a surprise visit to Pakistan on Friday where he met his counterpart Nawaz Sharif to greet him on his birthday. In pictures the two can be seen smiling and even holding hands.

To many observers in the Subcontinent it was as close as you could get to a Christmas miracle, being the first visit by an Indian prime minister since 2004. The fact that Modi has a reputation as a hardliner, who in the past has taken a strong stance towards relations with Pakistan, adds significantly to the occasion.

But as always, this latest development should be welcomed with caution. Since independence in 1947 relations between the two countries have been continuously troublesome. Every few years these moments of thaw have tended to appear, but then some unfortunate incident occurs and relations revert them back to the normalised state of friction.

Modi’s brief visit to Lahore draws parallels with former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee who visited Pakistan in 1999, only to be followed by the short-lived Kargil war later that year. Incidentally Sharif was the prime minister back then as well, and Vajpayee belonged to the same party as Modi.

Earlier this month I visited a trade fair by SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Development) in Lahore. Like the European Union has done for Europe, or ASEAN has for South East Asian countries, SAARC holds the potential for enormous economic benefit for member countries in South Asia, particularly India and Pakistan.

Restrictions on travels have so far been a major barrier towards progress. At the SAARC fair one stall I visited was for an Indian 'roti maker' where a live demonstration was going on. As he made chapattis the vendor enthusiastically spoke about how it was his first time visiting Pakistan and expressed extremely positive views about his experience. Another stall for an online retailer had a banner which read: “Shop online in India, delivered at your doorstep in Pakistan.”

Ordinary people in India and Pakistan are keen for cultural and economic relations, but narrow politics and myopic visions of leaderships have kept the nations apart. The government of Modi has a right-wing ideology while Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in Pakistan draws his votes from a similarly conservative base. Some experts argue that, with their strong mandates, the two actually have greater legroom to work towards peace. But is that really the case?

Recently, respected Indian journalist Barkha Dutt claimed in her new book ‘This Unquiet Land’ how Modi and Sharif once held a secret hour long meeting in Nepal. Modi told his Pakistani counterpart how he was keen for dialogue but “circumstances” did not allow him. Similarly Sharif spoke of “constrictions” placed on him from the security establishment and how his “negotiating power with the army had been gradually whittled away”.

The problem with having conservative populous governments in power seems to be that when matters go wrong, they can go spectacularly wrong. Consider the example of Turkey. Only a few years back, it was being touted to the world as a model for its “zero problem with neighbours” foreign policy approach. Today Turkey has problems with nearly all of its immediate neighbours.

The fact is having a strong leadership is simply not enough to guarantee peace. Regional geopolitics and domestic developments can bring all your cards tumbling down.

So where does the solution lie for India and Pakistan? I believe addressing the root causes of the problem between the two countries is important. For many in Pakistan it is the issue of finding a lasting solution to Kashmir. In India when it comes to Pakistan the mantra is the issue of terrorism. No matter how many meetings and handshakes the leaders of India and Pakistan have, they will have limited scope if these two issues aren’t addressed directly and as soon as possible.

It is no coincidence that the extreme right in both countries are doing their best to prevent dialougue. Hafiz Saeed, leader of the extremist Pakistani outfit Jamaat-ud-Dawaa, spoke of how Modi’s visit "greatly hurt the sentiments of the nation." Similarly across the border the far-right Shiv Sena party also protested against the meeting in Lahore and have asked for Modi to apologize. The issue of Kashmir and terrorism are the oxygen which keep pumping life into those groups whose members may profess to two different faiths, but share an almost indistinct narrow outlook.

Having said all this, the meeting between Sharif and Modi needs to be taken as a positive step. In an increasingly volatile world with burning conflicts - like Syria, Iraq and Palestinean, an improvement in relations between India and Pakistan gives at least a glimmer of hope for 2016.