Blank-faced dullness has served him well, but how can Starmer seal the deal with Trump?

How can the prime minister remain pragmatic while appealing to Trump’s vanity – and without sacrificing his values, asks John Rentoul

It is hard to judge how well Keir Starmer is doing in managing the Trump administration while the rollercoaster ride is in progress.

One moment, the prime minister is at a high point, with the president saying he has “done a very good job”. The next, JD Vance, vice president and attack dog, is snarling about “infringements on free speech” in Britain. And we are still paying the same minimum 10 per cent tariff on most of our exports to the US that other countries are paying.

So far, though, I think Starmer’s blank-faced dullness has served Britain reasonably well. A more articulate politician might have been tempted to explain himself. A politician more eager to ingratiate himself with his own voters might have been tempted to tell the truth, which is that Trump is a blowhard and a bully.

It is all very well Mark Carney, the Canadian prime minister, saying that his country’s old relationship with the US, “based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military cooperation, is over” – he has an election to fight in 12 days’ time, and Trump is helping him to win it.

Starmer does not need to do that, and he has time on his side. If he indulged in the cliche of “speaking truth unto power”, there is no accounting for the damage that the impulsive US president could do.

Starmer just has to ride the rollercoaster, with a fixed grin and the minimum of running commentary, and wait for the logic of the trade war to blow itself out. Over the past few days, the mood in No 10 has switched from optimism that a trade deal is about to be done, to pessimism, and back again.

This has been the pattern since Trump’s inauguration. No 10 was obsessed with Starmer meeting Trump in the White House, which he did on 27 February. Starmer’s aides were euphoric when it went well, with the King’s invitation to a second state visit as the party trick. The next day, the rollercoaster plunged when Trump and Vance humiliated Volodymyr Zelensky, Britain’s ally, on the same sofas.

‘The truth is that Trump and Vance have played their hand so badly that they now need a UK trade deal as much as we do’ (PA Wire)

Up and down the ride went. One moment, sources in the White House were telling Nigel Farage that Trump would cancel the Chagos Islands deal. The next, the president waved the treaty through and said it was fine by him. It still looks like a terrible treaty from the outside, but it will fall to the British House of Commons to block it, not the US president.

After “Liberation Day”, Starmer was (relatively speaking) riding high on the rollercoaster, as it seemed that Britain would face lower tariffs than the EU. The “never explain” prime minister said nothing about enjoying the Brexit dividend, but he must have thought it. The next moment, the differential tariff was cancelled by a wave of the imperial hand, and Britain and the EU are currently paying the same 10 per cent baseline tariff.

Now Vance is blowing hot and cold on a trade deal, saying in public that “the president really loves the United Kingdom”, and that there is a “good chance” of “a great agreement that’s in the best interest of both countries”, while sources explain that his private view is: “No free speech, no deal.”

We shall see. The truth is that Trump and Vance have played their hand so badly that they now need a UK trade deal as much as we do. The president has boasted that many countries are lining up to make deals with the US, so it would be awkward for him if he cannot even land the one deal that is more or less ready to go.

Meanwhile, The Times reports that Peter Mandelson, our ambassador to Washington, is “very focused” on stopping a 25 per cent tariff on drugs. Pharmaceuticals are currently exempt from Trump’s 10 per cent baseline tariff, and, judging by Lord Mandelson’s apparent confidence, are likely to remain so.

Starmer cannot be sure of anything, but the American stock market has made its interim judgment. The S&P 500 is currently down five per cent since the “Liberation Day” tariff announcement, which suggests that the market thinks the effect will be negative but not catastrophic – in other words, it does not believe that Trump will follow through on the worst of his tariff threats.

In the meantime, Starmer is adopting the most sensible position: gripping the safety bar with a fixed smile and murmuring politely but, he hopes, not obsequiously, “Thank you, Mr President.”